Some thoughts about development in India and China in past few decades, and challenges ahead for both
Given below are the contents of a mail exchange I had recently with an Indian correspondent (slightly edited; Indian correspondent was OK with public sharing):
Indian correspondent (IC) wrote:
Dear Ravi
Just saw this article and thought you may be interested. It shows graphically how India's and China's populations will change in the coming thirty or so years.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/this-animation-compares-the-population-growth-of-india-and-china/
Thought you may be interested.
---
I (Ravi) responded:
Fascinating read (and view of animation). Thanks.
The impression I have based on limited reading of articles and viewing of videos on China, which could be a wrong impression, is that economic inequality and bossing of the poor by the middle class & rich (through state apparatus) is quite an issue in China as a whole. The impression I have is that Indian workers have more trade union rights and better treatment than Chinese workers, even though China is a communist country where workers are supposed to be bosses! In India, democratic politics at local, state and central levels, howsoever ugly it may be, provides a safety valve for this kind of social tension.
I think one has to combine this aspect with the demographic challenges of more numbers of old people and less numbers of youth that China will face more and more in the coming years, as well as the sheer population pressure even if there are many youth that India already faces and will continue to face in a bigger way down the line. Then one will have a better knowledge based prediction of what the future decades may hold for China and India.
----
IC wrote:
China found employment for millions in manufacturing. They made China the manufacturing capital of the world. That option is not open for India as manufacturing will require fewer people in the future. In fact, it will hit China too as their own manufacturing gets more automated and fewer people are needed.
My impression is that organised labour works under better conditions here. However, the great mass of people work in the unorganised sector (farming, SMEs) where conditions are poor.
We have to wait and see how things develop.
----
Ravi wrote:
[About China manufacturing boom:]
Yes. That has been an outstanding achievement of China. However, I think they trampled over people's rights while expanding in this space, including in the area of land acquisition. So there seems to have been a social unrest price that was paid as part of this. Normally such social unrest stuff comes back in future as a serious problem. I mean, it did not seem to be an organic development giving Chinese society a chance to grow into the changed scenario. I think a lot of it was simply shoved down people's throats.
But I think if one sees material development indices for society as a whole, China, I am sure, is way ahead of India. That's the positive side of the Chinese embrace of capitalism combined with authoritarianism.
...
This problem of jobs in the future, especially for rural folks who do not pick up smart working skills, seems to threaten to become a social fabric unraveling problem worldwide! I mean, even USA is going to face the problem along with China and India, with these three nations being, I think, the most populous nations of the world today.
...
[About great mass of people in India working in unorganized sector:]
That is an important point. Labour in the unorganized sector leads a difficult life in India. I see that every day in Puttaparthi. But I don't know how large the unorganized sector is in China and how challenging life there is.
...
Automation seems to be a very, very big disruptive change agent already. God knows how much change we will see in the future. This is where I think democracy may be able to better regulate automation's unpleasant disruptive changes to society. In contrast, in authoritarian regimes including China I don't know how long it will take for the regime to regulate unpleasant disruption that automation may bring.
Here's an around 11 min fascinating interview of Chinese Internet business tycoon Jack Ma (published) in Sept. this year, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJBVGbe8g9g, on what he sees happening in the future. If you haven't seen it, you may want to have a look at it. ....
[Transcript of larger interview including this video clip is available here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/21/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-excerpts-alibaba-executive-chairman-jack-ma-speaks-with-cnbcs-david-faber-from-alibabas-gateway-17-event.html. Jack Ma says that next 30 years is going to be painful due to technology changes and associated job requirement changes. About AI (Artificial Intelligence) he says that humans will win over machines as machine is good for knowledge but human beings are good at wisdom. He says that data will become very important in the coming years and decades. ]
If I recall correctly, Jack Ma did not say anything about a safety net for those who are not smart enough to get decent jobs in the future. That is the worrying part for me. Who will handle that issue? I guess that's where the burden will fall perhaps squarely on the political leaders of the countries.
-----
IC wrote:
I was going to send you the same thing about Jack Ma!
----
Ravi wrote:
:-)
----
Indian correspondent (IC) wrote:
Dear Ravi
Just saw this article and thought you may be interested. It shows graphically how India's and China's populations will change in the coming thirty or so years.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/this-animation-compares-the-population-growth-of-india-and-china/
Thought you may be interested.
---
I (Ravi) responded:
Fascinating read (and view of animation). Thanks.
The impression I have based on limited reading of articles and viewing of videos on China, which could be a wrong impression, is that economic inequality and bossing of the poor by the middle class & rich (through state apparatus) is quite an issue in China as a whole. The impression I have is that Indian workers have more trade union rights and better treatment than Chinese workers, even though China is a communist country where workers are supposed to be bosses! In India, democratic politics at local, state and central levels, howsoever ugly it may be, provides a safety valve for this kind of social tension.
I think one has to combine this aspect with the demographic challenges of more numbers of old people and less numbers of youth that China will face more and more in the coming years, as well as the sheer population pressure even if there are many youth that India already faces and will continue to face in a bigger way down the line. Then one will have a better knowledge based prediction of what the future decades may hold for China and India.
----
IC wrote:
China found employment for millions in manufacturing. They made China the manufacturing capital of the world. That option is not open for India as manufacturing will require fewer people in the future. In fact, it will hit China too as their own manufacturing gets more automated and fewer people are needed.
My impression is that organised labour works under better conditions here. However, the great mass of people work in the unorganised sector (farming, SMEs) where conditions are poor.
We have to wait and see how things develop.
----
Ravi wrote:
[About China manufacturing boom:]
Yes. That has been an outstanding achievement of China. However, I think they trampled over people's rights while expanding in this space, including in the area of land acquisition. So there seems to have been a social unrest price that was paid as part of this. Normally such social unrest stuff comes back in future as a serious problem. I mean, it did not seem to be an organic development giving Chinese society a chance to grow into the changed scenario. I think a lot of it was simply shoved down people's throats.
But I think if one sees material development indices for society as a whole, China, I am sure, is way ahead of India. That's the positive side of the Chinese embrace of capitalism combined with authoritarianism.
...
This problem of jobs in the future, especially for rural folks who do not pick up smart working skills, seems to threaten to become a social fabric unraveling problem worldwide! I mean, even USA is going to face the problem along with China and India, with these three nations being, I think, the most populous nations of the world today.
...
[About great mass of people in India working in unorganized sector:]
That is an important point. Labour in the unorganized sector leads a difficult life in India. I see that every day in Puttaparthi. But I don't know how large the unorganized sector is in China and how challenging life there is.
...
Automation seems to be a very, very big disruptive change agent already. God knows how much change we will see in the future. This is where I think democracy may be able to better regulate automation's unpleasant disruptive changes to society. In contrast, in authoritarian regimes including China I don't know how long it will take for the regime to regulate unpleasant disruption that automation may bring.
Here's an around 11 min fascinating interview of Chinese Internet business tycoon Jack Ma (published) in Sept. this year, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJBVGbe8g9g, on what he sees happening in the future. If you haven't seen it, you may want to have a look at it. ....
[Transcript of larger interview including this video clip is available here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/21/cnbc-exclusive-cnbc-excerpts-alibaba-executive-chairman-jack-ma-speaks-with-cnbcs-david-faber-from-alibabas-gateway-17-event.html. Jack Ma says that next 30 years is going to be painful due to technology changes and associated job requirement changes. About AI (Artificial Intelligence) he says that humans will win over machines as machine is good for knowledge but human beings are good at wisdom. He says that data will become very important in the coming years and decades. ]
If I recall correctly, Jack Ma did not say anything about a safety net for those who are not smart enough to get decent jobs in the future. That is the worrying part for me. Who will handle that issue? I guess that's where the burden will fall perhaps squarely on the political leaders of the countries.
-----
IC wrote:
I was going to send you the same thing about Jack Ma!
----
Ravi wrote:
:-)
----
Comments
Post a Comment