US academic's rather shocking view of the current political and social situation in China
Here is a US academic's rather shocking view of the current political and social situation in China, "The Coming Chinese Crackup", http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659198. However, a recent comment from a Nate Smith, "Been predicted for years , I will only believe it when I see it actually happen .Probably the Tanks will roll instead .", seems to put the article in the right perspective. It would be very interesting to see a response to this article from a supporter of the Chinese govt.
I hope and pray that the changes in China that the article mentions, are done in a peaceful and harmonious way so that there is no major disturbance to the Chinese people at large.
Some comments from me on the article:
* On the point about "badly broken" Chinese political system: Those are very strong words!
* About Chinese economic elites being ready to migrate abroad and multimillion dollar USA-birth-tourism: Well, I think a lot of that could have been said of India in the past, and perhaps even today. But the conclusion about lack of confidence in the country's future - I don't think it entirely applied to India then and now, and I think the same would be the case with China.
*About absence of law in China: Very strong words. I find them difficult to believe. "Absence of the rule of law" - Really? It may be that the USA academic could not relate to Chinese way of resolving internal disputes. Surely there would be some mechanism given the ancient history that China has.
* About corruption: My considered view is that systems still work even if there is corruption. It may not be the Western transparent way and may be rooted in feudal type systems which survived over millennia. I am not saying that corruption is a good thing. Ideally there should be no corruption. India certainly has a major corruption issue, perhaps similar to what the author mentions about China. But the presence of corruption does not mean that the system breaks down entirely. Further, Western nations have more sophisticated forms of influencing decision making even at topmost levels. They may not technically be called corruption but they certainly are viewed as shady lobbying kind of efforts. I guess that when powerful interests are challenged or threatened, money power will almost always be used to try to influence decision making in some way or the other, whether it is the Western world or Asian countries like China and India.
* About draconian political controls, avoiding the Soviet nightmare, Mr. Xi's (supposed) wave of repression: Very strong words again! I am quite shocked by the tone of this article. I mean, I don't recall reading similar views in The Hindu (my regular newspaper) which does print articles on China by its reporter there, from time to time.
* The article states towards its conclusion: "We cannot predict when Chinese communism will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are witnessing its final phase. The CCP is the world’s second-longest ruling regime (behind only North Korea), and no party can rule forever."
Hmm! Interesting factoid about China and North Korea having the longest ruling regimes (in recent centuries, I guess). I have had very limited contact with Chinese people though I have had some limited interactions with Chinese-Americans. It seems to me that Russia, the main power behind the Soviet Union, is very different in mindset from China. Financial woes coming from competing with the West in the arms race and other areas may have been a vital reason for the Soviet Union collapse. China is doing great economically. So long as its people, including the rural poor (and urban poor, if any), are provided the basic amenities of life, I don't think the Chinese communist government will collapse (as mentioned in the article). Desire for more freedom like in the West by Chinese university students, professors and intellectuals alone will not create the mass movement that seems to be necessary for any internally-powered change in China's political system.
I think finally it is the happiness of the people as a whole that will be important to the Chinese. If Chinese communism is delivering on this goal then why will they want to change it with something different that may result in turmoil & suffering to large sections of people, at least in the short term?
I hope and pray that the changes in China that the article mentions, are done in a peaceful and harmonious way so that there is no major disturbance to the Chinese people at large.
Some comments from me on the article:
* On the point about "badly broken" Chinese political system: Those are very strong words!
* About Chinese economic elites being ready to migrate abroad and multimillion dollar USA-birth-tourism: Well, I think a lot of that could have been said of India in the past, and perhaps even today. But the conclusion about lack of confidence in the country's future - I don't think it entirely applied to India then and now, and I think the same would be the case with China.
*About absence of law in China: Very strong words. I find them difficult to believe. "Absence of the rule of law" - Really? It may be that the USA academic could not relate to Chinese way of resolving internal disputes. Surely there would be some mechanism given the ancient history that China has.
* About corruption: My considered view is that systems still work even if there is corruption. It may not be the Western transparent way and may be rooted in feudal type systems which survived over millennia. I am not saying that corruption is a good thing. Ideally there should be no corruption. India certainly has a major corruption issue, perhaps similar to what the author mentions about China. But the presence of corruption does not mean that the system breaks down entirely. Further, Western nations have more sophisticated forms of influencing decision making even at topmost levels. They may not technically be called corruption but they certainly are viewed as shady lobbying kind of efforts. I guess that when powerful interests are challenged or threatened, money power will almost always be used to try to influence decision making in some way or the other, whether it is the Western world or Asian countries like China and India.
* About draconian political controls, avoiding the Soviet nightmare, Mr. Xi's (supposed) wave of repression: Very strong words again! I am quite shocked by the tone of this article. I mean, I don't recall reading similar views in The Hindu (my regular newspaper) which does print articles on China by its reporter there, from time to time.
* The article states towards its conclusion: "We cannot predict when Chinese communism will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are witnessing its final phase. The CCP is the world’s second-longest ruling regime (behind only North Korea), and no party can rule forever."
Hmm! Interesting factoid about China and North Korea having the longest ruling regimes (in recent centuries, I guess). I have had very limited contact with Chinese people though I have had some limited interactions with Chinese-Americans. It seems to me that Russia, the main power behind the Soviet Union, is very different in mindset from China. Financial woes coming from competing with the West in the arms race and other areas may have been a vital reason for the Soviet Union collapse. China is doing great economically. So long as its people, including the rural poor (and urban poor, if any), are provided the basic amenities of life, I don't think the Chinese communist government will collapse (as mentioned in the article). Desire for more freedom like in the West by Chinese university students, professors and intellectuals alone will not create the mass movement that seems to be necessary for any internally-powered change in China's political system.
I think finally it is the happiness of the people as a whole that will be important to the Chinese. If Chinese communism is delivering on this goal then why will they want to change it with something different that may result in turmoil & suffering to large sections of people, at least in the short term?
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