Francis Collins' prescient words on 16th March 2020 about coronavirus pandemic and its impact on USA
I have an especial regard for Dr. Francis Collins as I was privileged to have short email interactions with him wrt my 2012 transcript of his talk on God & Science in Caltech in 2008 which I have put up as a post here: https://iami1.wordpress.com/2012/08/10/francis-collins-the-language-of-god-a-scientist-presents-evidence-of-belief-transcript/ (and which appears as a top Google search result for search terms like: francis collins caltech talk transcript, and which gets visits every once in while, even today).
He is one of the do-gooder heroes of our time who is also a staunch believer in God (Christian faith, in his case).
He is the director of National Institutes of Health, USA and so is a key figure in the fight against coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic in USA.
NIH chief Francis Collins on COVID-19: Best response one people would find 'too drastic', https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/19/nih-francis-collins-coronavirus-questions-answers/2873121001/, 19th March 2020.
Part of Dr. Collins' response to a question: "Right now, in the U.S., we supposedly have 6,500 cases (as of March 16). That's got to be a vast underestimate because we have not been able to sample all the people who may be infected or who have no symptoms at all. Some of these people are already destined to become very sick. If we did everything right today, you would still see the numbers going up over the next two weeks because of what's out there already. We can't change that. But, what we might be able to do is change what's going to happen three or four weeks from now. That's our challenge. When you're on an exponential curve, every moment is dangerous. This is a particularly critical moment for us to try to bring all the resources and determination of government and the American people to try to get off of it."
Another part of his response (on March 16th): "We are at a point in the U.S where we are doubling the number of new cases about every two to three days. That's called an exponential curve. If you map that up next to Italy you might say we're about eight to 10 days behind them in terms of infections. We better get busy."
To the question (on 16th March): "Should the U.S. impose a total lockdown now?", Dr. Collins responded: "It's so hard to answer that but what I would say is what Anthony Fauci (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) has said a few times in recent days and that is that the approach we should be taking right now is one that most people would find to be too drastic because otherwise, it is not drastic enough."
Ravi: These top experts could see in mid-March itself when USA had only 6500 cases (yes, just six thousand five hundred cases) [JHU - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html - gives number of 4,600 on 16th March], that there was high probability of USA cases spiking to this horrible and terrible number of 188,200 (one hundred and eighty eight thousand two hundred) on 31st March in a matter of just a fortnight (15 days). [188200/4600 = 40.91! Over 40 times in 15 days!]
I worked out the numbers for 4,600 on 16th March doubling every 3 days in an Excel spreadsheet (attached pic of it below). On 31st March the figure becomes 147,200! Absolutely terrifying, this exponential growth thing!
And as they saw the danger, I am sure they would have tried hard to alert all appropriate persons about it. Especially, after Italy!
Hmm. What a burden it would have been for these experts to know how challenging it most probably would be for USA in the coming weeks but when most other people would have simply not believed them! And I don't blame these other people for not believing them. I, for one, if I was told about this drastic possibility in USA, would have felt that it simply could not become that big in USA, despite what happened in Italy. Just shows how ignorant I was about the dangers of such pandemics even to the most powerful and highly medically advanced country in the world today.
I earnestly hope and pray that the heat of India blunts the novel coronavirus in India. And I fully support all mitigation efforts by Indian union and state governments. That's the way China beat it. I think India has no choice but to follow China's tried-and-successful approach.
[I thank usatoday.com and have presumed that they will not have any objections to me sharing the above extract(s) from their website on this post which is on a matter of vital public interest and is freely viewable by all, and does not have any financial profit motive whatsoever.]
He is one of the do-gooder heroes of our time who is also a staunch believer in God (Christian faith, in his case).
He is the director of National Institutes of Health, USA and so is a key figure in the fight against coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic in USA.
NIH chief Francis Collins on COVID-19: Best response one people would find 'too drastic', https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/03/19/nih-francis-collins-coronavirus-questions-answers/2873121001/, 19th March 2020.
Part of Dr. Collins' response to a question: "Right now, in the U.S., we supposedly have 6,500 cases (as of March 16). That's got to be a vast underestimate because we have not been able to sample all the people who may be infected or who have no symptoms at all. Some of these people are already destined to become very sick. If we did everything right today, you would still see the numbers going up over the next two weeks because of what's out there already. We can't change that. But, what we might be able to do is change what's going to happen three or four weeks from now. That's our challenge. When you're on an exponential curve, every moment is dangerous. This is a particularly critical moment for us to try to bring all the resources and determination of government and the American people to try to get off of it."
Another part of his response (on March 16th): "We are at a point in the U.S where we are doubling the number of new cases about every two to three days. That's called an exponential curve. If you map that up next to Italy you might say we're about eight to 10 days behind them in terms of infections. We better get busy."
To the question (on 16th March): "Should the U.S. impose a total lockdown now?", Dr. Collins responded: "It's so hard to answer that but what I would say is what Anthony Fauci (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) has said a few times in recent days and that is that the approach we should be taking right now is one that most people would find to be too drastic because otherwise, it is not drastic enough."
Ravi: These top experts could see in mid-March itself when USA had only 6500 cases (yes, just six thousand five hundred cases) [JHU - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html - gives number of 4,600 on 16th March], that there was high probability of USA cases spiking to this horrible and terrible number of 188,200 (one hundred and eighty eight thousand two hundred) on 31st March in a matter of just a fortnight (15 days). [188200/4600 = 40.91! Over 40 times in 15 days!]
I worked out the numbers for 4,600 on 16th March doubling every 3 days in an Excel spreadsheet (attached pic of it below). On 31st March the figure becomes 147,200! Absolutely terrifying, this exponential growth thing!
And as they saw the danger, I am sure they would have tried hard to alert all appropriate persons about it. Especially, after Italy!
Hmm. What a burden it would have been for these experts to know how challenging it most probably would be for USA in the coming weeks but when most other people would have simply not believed them! And I don't blame these other people for not believing them. I, for one, if I was told about this drastic possibility in USA, would have felt that it simply could not become that big in USA, despite what happened in Italy. Just shows how ignorant I was about the dangers of such pandemics even to the most powerful and highly medically advanced country in the world today.
I earnestly hope and pray that the heat of India blunts the novel coronavirus in India. And I fully support all mitigation efforts by Indian union and state governments. That's the way China beat it. I think India has no choice but to follow China's tried-and-successful approach.
[I thank usatoday.com and have presumed that they will not have any objections to me sharing the above extract(s) from their website on this post which is on a matter of vital public interest and is freely viewable by all, and does not have any financial profit motive whatsoever.]
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